The Mega Rupee Strength!

During the last 15 months, Euro fell by nearly 25%, Brazilian Real by 30%, Russian Ruble by 50% and Canadian dollar by 18% all against the USD. The INR is down only by 2%! My previous article on Indian rupee was written during August 2013 titled “The Mega Rupee Slide” when Indian Rupee (INR) was sliding down as if there was no tomorrow. The question back then was, how low the INR will go and how can this be stopped. Within two years, that question is now flipped over its face. This time around, the motivation to look at INR was for the opposite reason. When almost all global currencies are sliding down against US Dollar (as if there is no tomorrow!), INR is holding up quite well. This indeed


It is a common question to probe as to where would the Sensex be say in 5, 10 or 20 years. Currently Sensex is trading around 29,000 levels and its historic peak was 29,681 achieved on January 29, 2015. To cut a long story short, let me tell you first my findings and launch into explanation later. I expect Sensex to touch 52,000 by 2018 and reach 110,000 levels by 2025. Source: Reuters Eikon; BSE, Author estimates Sensex had a modest beginning in 1978 when it was launched with a base value of 100. Granular level data is available only from 1991 in the Bombay Stock Exchange website. In the 90’s it crossed 1,000 and in the 2000’s it crossed 4,000. In its 36 year history, Sensex averaged an ann

What’s so special about these 29 companies?

They all survived the index (“Nifty”) for a decade or more. Not a small feat by any means! Out of the 29 companies that survived for 10 or more years, 15 of them survived since the formation of the index i.e., for 19 years! (the grey shaded companies in the table above) How did we arrive at this list? Nifty, as an index, is comprised of 50 leading stocks. But the index committee at National Stock Exchange (NSE) does carry out periodic changes (quarterly or more) whereby stocks are excluded and included based on a variety of criteria including liquidity, performance, etc . Since 1996 when the Nifty was constituted, nearly 100 companies have participated in this ritual of getting in and gettin

Investing in Peaks-What are the odds?

So, here is the question. Should you invest in Indian markets when Sensex is at its all-time high? What are the odds that you will make money from this point forward? It is quite common sense to avoid investing in peaks and invest during troughs (when market hits a bottom). However, this is easier said than done. What if the market is in a secular bull run? Are we not missing an opportunity to make money by not investing just because the market is at an all-time high? Ironically, markets come to investor attention only when they touch all-time highs. But all time high is also the point where prospective returns are diminished considerably. A look at Sensex from 2005 to 2014 (10 years) says t

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